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Online Predictions Market Uses Gambling to See Future
AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND --
New Zealand opened its first real money online prediction market today. The market trends will be used by the Victoria University of Wellington to research whether the market accurately foresees political and social events before they occur.
People can bet on elections or financial events, and legal possibilities. The likelihood of an occurence, as measured by the public backing, adjusts the chances of actually taking place.
It's considered a cross between polls, online wagering, and futures markets, and the scientists using it say its accuracy is far greater than ordinary polls. The new system is called iPredict, and Professor Neil Quigley, the iPredict chairman, said, "International research into predictive markets has proven that the moment a person backs their opinion with real money, the accuracy of the overall predictions increases dramatically."
Contracts are offered at fifty percent the chosen value, and once the event is past, can be returned with a correct prediction for one hundred percent. Then the contracts are traded on the website as an open market, allowing the market to determine a likelihood.
University professors expect it to be a most valuable tool in forecasting for companies testing products and government trying out policy. Good thing New Zealand doesn't have the UIGEA, or else another valuable service would be lost.
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