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Iowa Market Gamblers Favor Barack Obama
IOWA CITY, IOWA --
The Iowa Exchange Market, which deals in political futures, has given Barack Obama an 86 percent chance of winning the Presidency. This coincides with odds placed by foreign online casinos on the election, which have gone so far as to start paying out to Obama gamblers.
The Iowa Exchange is run by the University of Iowa, and uses the wagers, or investments, of individuals to figure the likely outcome of popular votes. The market has only been wrong in two Presidential elections in the last one hundred years.
Those were the 1916 election, and the incredibly close election of 2000, between George Bush and Al Gore.
Political exchanges were a popular form of gambling until World War II. They faded from popular consciousness as polls became more common, and other forms of gambling became more available, such as sports and horse racing.
A study at the University of Iowa found that such exchanges were more accurate than polling 74 percent of the time. While people may answer polls with their hearts, their heads take charge once money is involved.
The questions are also slightly but significantly different. Polls ask who the respondent will vote for, while exchanges want to know who will win.
McCain supporters may still plan on voting for him, but apparently they aren't willing to gamble money that he will succeed.
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